SHFE tin prices rebound slightly, while the spot market remains sluggish [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on July 16, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) fluctuated upward slightly during the night session, climbing to around 263,900 yuan/mt before closing, up 0.10% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Multiple domestic chip industry sources stated that in H1, production capacity at several major domestic chip producers was "fully booked," with companies like Kunlunxin and Cambricon experiencing overwhelming orders. Domestic GPU makers are seizing the opportunity during the recent three-month vacuum period to aggressively target the H20 market. (2) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) announced plans to resume exports of its MI308 chips to China after the US indicated approval, following a similar decision regarding Nvidia's semiconductor products. An AMD spokesperson confirmed on Tuesday that the US Commerce Department informed the company its MI308 license application would proceed to review—a reversal of Trump-era policies. In April, AMD estimated the export restrictions on MI308 chips would cost it approximately $800 million. Earlier, Nvidia also stated that the US government agreed to approve exports of its H20 AI chips to China, a decision potentially adding billions to its annual revenue. (Bullish★) (3) Tariffs—① US Treasury Secretary recently signaled no concern over the expiration date of the US-China partial tariff suspension, calling negotiations "progressing well." ② EU Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič will meet with the US Trade Representative. ③ Trump: A trade deal with Indonesia will impose 19% tariffs on Indonesian exports to the US, while US exports to Indonesia will enjoy tariff- and non-tariff-barrier-free treatment. Transshipped goods will face combined tariffs from both origin and transit countries. ④ US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: "We don’t impose tariffs on raw steel, only on finished steel products."

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply remains tight in key production regions like Yunnan, with some smelters likely maintaining maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in July (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV sector—Post installation rush, tin bar orders in east China declined, lowering operating rates at some producers; Electronics—South China’s end-user electronics entered the off-season, compounded by high tin prices and strong wait-and-see sentiment, with orders limited to rigid demand; Other sectors—Steady demand in tinplate and chemical applications without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Despite prices pulling back below 265,000 yuan/mt, downstream purchase willingness remains weak, with restocking mostly following a "small-batch, multi-frequency" strategy for rigid needs. Smelters continue holding prices tightly, limiting actual transactions. Most traders reported deals around 20 mt, while a few closed 1-2 truckloads, leaving the overall spot market sluggish.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research and decision-making advice. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and refrain from using this information to replace their independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]